Can Tom Cruise save the season?
Flash and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny are just two examples of the plethora of promising films that haven’t quite lived up to expectations. According to Comscore, the summer domestic box office for the months of May 1 to July 9 is $2.1 billion, which is 6% less than the same time last year.
All eyes are on the most well-reviewed Mission: Impossible film ever, Paramount/Skydance’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, which is set to open on Wednesday and is predicted to set a franchise global 5-day record of $250M, consisting of $90M domestically and $160M internationally in 70 markets, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Italy, Korea, Mexico, Spain, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. There is a lot of room for improvement here, not only since the seventh Mission: Impossible is likely to benefit from a Top Gun: Maverick halo effect and has a certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes score of 98%. Yes, the viewership for Mission: Impossible skews heavily towards older men, with 58% of the audience over 45 being men in the most recent episode, Fallout. However, Top Gun: Maverick ended up appealing to a diverse and younger audience than its opening weekend demographics of 45% over 45 and 58%. According to reports, some audience members under the age of 25 saw their first Mission film during the film’s testing. The series has been running for 27 years.
Cruise has collaborated on four films with Oscar-winning director Christopher McQuarrie; Dead Reckoning marks the actor’s third Mission with the filmmaker following 2015’s Rogue Nation and 2018’s Fallout.
With 4,300 sites by Wednesday, previews in the United States start at 2 PM on Tuesday. Many theatres offer discounted Tuesdays but keep in mind that Imax and PLFs—the best ways to experience this massive automobile and train pursuit spectacle—cost more. We’ve already heard that presales for Dead Reckoning are much ahead of those for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, two older titles that were released around the same time. The mission’s reported net budget is $291 million, and the Covid-challenged image begins and ends in Italy.
When Top Gun: Maverick posted $256.4M (3 days of $126.7M domestic, $129.7M foreign), Cruise could once again claim a record B.O. opening for his career with a worldwide start here far in excess of $250M.
With most significant international markets releasing films on Wednesdays, a simultaneous U.S. release here on Dead Reckoning screams global day and date for the Hollywood star who, with Top Gun: Maverick last summer, drew wary moviegoers back into theatres following Covid coast to coast. With $718.3 million in domestic box office revenue last year, Top Gun 2 finished second to Avatar: The Way of Water in terms of global box office revenue.
However, a Wednesday start also brings the glory of a five-day box office record to the longest Mission, which runs 2 hours and 43 minutes; the problem for the exhibition is fewer showtimes during the day.
However, even if Dead Reckoning falls short of expectations, it is expected to succeed because Cruise’s films are backloaded rather than frontloaded (see Top Gun: Maverick earned 82% of its domestic revenue after its debut weekend, and Mission: Impossible – Fallout earned 72% of its $220 million domestic revenue after its first three days of $61.2 million.
There have been a few missions that began in the middle of the week. The first 1996 film, directed by Brian DePalma, opened to $3.4 million on Tuesday before grossing $63.5 million in its first five days and $74.9 million in its sixth, all during the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
John Woo’s Mission: Impossible II opened on the Wednesday before Memorial Day weekend in 2000 and earned $78.8 million over five days and $91.8 million over six. Dead Reckoning – Part One premieres in France on Wednesday. Previews have been underway in a number of other centers, including the UK, Italy, Australia, and cuckoo-for-Cruise Korea, which will officially join the IMF team on Friday. China departs this Friday. Cruise-crazy To avoid this week’s premiere of How Do You Live? by local master Hayao Miyazaki, Japan is moving its departure date back a week.
Offshore comps include Mission: Impossible – Fallout, which debuted at $173.1M (excluding previews and comparable markets at current rates). The $74M from China during a completely different time for that market is included in this total, it should be noted. Fallout opened to $186.6M (again, including in the China figure and in a like-for-like scenario) with previews.
When comparing Top Gun: Maverick from the previous year, the opening weekend worldwide gross was $103.5M (previews excluded). The sequel received a $129.7M launch with previews.
The top markets for Fallout in the end were China, Korea, Japan, the UK, and France.
Top Gun saw Maverick, the UK, Japan, Korea, Australia, and France dominate play (Top Gun was not released in China).
M: I7 is presently leading presales for the weekend in China, which was the top overseas market for Fallout, despite fierce local competition. Dead Reckoning is hoped to perform well, but given the market disruption for Hollywood films, we are moving slowly. Cruise has once more worked tirelessly to promote the film — and the big-screen experience — abroad, where he is an expert on the significance of international markets. The Dead Reckoning tour began in Rome with a grand global premiere ceremony on the Spanish Steps, which are prominently featured in a crucial chase scene and were attended by major cast members, McQuarrie, editor Eddie Hamilton, and co-screenwriter Erik Jendresen. Over the course of roughly four hours, Cruise graciously took the time to sign autographs and pose for pictures with hundreds of fans and members of the media. The team next traveled to Korea (a mega-Cruise market) for a press conference and red carpet extravaganza. From there, they traveled to London for a UK premiere in Leicester Square, then to Abu Dhabi, where some of the movie was filmed. On July 3, during the Oz premiere, Cruise celebrated his 61st birthday in Australia. The group will then travel to Japan.